At 4-4, the team only has a 67% chance to make the playoffs | Forum

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zhangzk Jan 9

Earlier this year Mike Wallace Jersey , I made a bold statement that the Eagles will not win the Super Bowl.  As you, a beloved reader of BGN who never skips straight to the comments, recall from reading this article, I was very critical of the Eagles’ secondary, specifically Jalen Mills and the cornerback position. Well now that our favorite team in green has played half of their 2018 games, lets take a look at how my hawt taeks aged and what the heck is going on.It dawned on me recently that the Eagles have almost been two separate teams. At times, like Week 6 against the Giants or the second half of the showdown in Minnesota, the Eagles look like a dominant, champion caliber team. At other times, like the first half of the game against Tampa Bay or the end of the Panthers game, the team looks lost, confused, and downright terrible. Using my Engineering background, I was able to determine which halves the Eagles outscored their opponents, and which halves the Eagles got outscored in.The Good Eagles: Eagles 149 - Opponent 65: (2.3 K/D Ratio)Week 1, Half 2: Eagles 15- Falcons 6Week 2, Half 2: Eagles 14 - Buccaneers 7Week 3: Eagles 20 - Colts 16Week 4, Half 1: Eagles 10 - Titans 3Week 5, Half 2: Eagles 18 - Vikings 6Week 6: Eagles 38 - Giants 9Week 7, Half 1: Eagles 10 - Panthers 0Week 8: Eagles 24 - Jaguars 18The Bad Eagles: Eagles 33 - Opponent 87: (0.38 K/D Ratio)Week 1, Half 1: Eagles 3 - Falcons 6Week 2, Half 1: Eagles 7 - Buccaneers 20Week 4, Half 2: Eagles 13 - Titans 23Week 5, Half 1: Eagles 3 - Vikings 17Week 7, Half 2: Eagles 7 - Panthers 21While it appears the Good Eagles have shown up more than the Bad Eagles, it is very concerning just how bad the Bad Eagles have been. When diving into the data between these groups of halves, one thing stood out like a bad Jerry Jones haircut.All that Matters is The Ability to Generate PressureThe Good Eagles have generated pressure on 50.2% of passing plays, a rate which is simply astounding. The Bad Eagles, on the other hand, have generated pressure on just 37.4% of plays. Consequently, the Good Eagles have allowed a passer rating of just 74.5 Authentic Sidney Jones Jersey , a mark that would be best in the league if only the Good Eagles were an actual team. Unfortunately, the Bad Eagles, who have allowed a passer rating of 106.5 (a mark that would be 3rd worst in the league), need to be considered as well. When broken down by halves and graphed, you get something like this:To summarize the chart above. When the Eagles:Generate pressure on > 37.2% of snaps, they outscore their opponents 90.9% of the timeHold opposing QBs to a rating of < 94.0, they outscore their opponents 88.9% of the time.Do both, they outscore their opponents 100% of the timeDo neither, they outscore their opponents 0% of the timeAlso, when the Eagles generate pressure on > 37.2% of snaps, opposing QBs throw for a passer rating of < 94.0 63.6% of the time.To put it simply, when the Eagles generate a lot of pressure, they limit the effectiveness of the opposing gunslinger and usually win the game (or in this case, the half). It appears that the Eagles success so far in 2018 has been almost entirely dependent on the defense and their ability to generate pressure and slow down the passing game. The ability of the Eagles to slow down opposing running attacks also appears to have little to nothing to do with the outcome, as the Good Eagles have allowed 4.8 yards per carry, while the Bad Eagles have allowed just 3.9. Pressure, with a sprinkle of production by the offense, that is.While pressure generated seems to be the most important factor in terms of success by the Eagles this season, it would be foolish to ignore the inconsistency of the offense throughout the same games. Similar to above, I broke down the offensive production, by half, into a plot to look for any correlation between success in the passing game or success in the running game and winning.In summary, when the Eagles:Run the ball for 3.9 or more yards per carry, they outscore their opponents 90% of the time. Pass the ball for 6.9 or more YPA, they outscore their opponents 81.8% of the time.Do both, they outscore their opponents 100% of the time.Do neither, they outscore their opponents 0% of the time.Given the recent trade for Golden Tate, it appears the Eagles agree that more production should be had out of the Philly passing game. Without Jay Ajayi, the team may struggle to dominate on the ground, but the data shows that if they can be merely league average with a proficient passing attack, that is enough to win.Given the data, it is evident what the team needs to focus on moving forward if they want the Good Eagles to simply become the 2018 Eagles:Passing, Passing Youth Malcolm Jenkins Jersey , Passing, Passing, Passing.On offense, the Good Eagles pass for 8.0 yards per attempt, and run for 4.2 yards per carry while their negative counterpart passes for just 5.8 yards per attempt and 3.7 yards per carry. While 3.7 yards per carry is nothing to write home about, it is enough to get first downs and be effective. 5.8 yards per attempt, on the other hand, is what you get if you want to be in between Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor. For this reason, it is comforting to see that the Eagles made a trade to increase the effectiveness of the aerial attack and not the ground gameAs far as defense goes, the Eagles are plenty good at stopping the run. As mentioned above, the Good Eagles are actually worse at it than the Bad Eagles, and yet they are undefeated! While the secondary will remain a liability for the remainder of the season, a dominant pass rush that the team has proven capable of generating is the only thing separating a 4-4 defense from an 8-0 defense.Eagles vs. Colts snap count analysis: Philadelphia’s backup running backs combine for a big day Here’s a breakdown of the snap counts from the Philadelphia Eagles’ 20-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season. OFFENSEThe Eagles are going to win a lot when Carson Wentz and the entire offensive line plays the entire game. Good to see Jason Peters making it through his first full game this season after he had to leave early in Week 1 and Week 2. Peters was a force out on the edge.With the Eagles being so depleted at the skill positions, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor basically had to play the entire game.Great to see Dallas Goedert much more involved here after he only logged 22% of the snaps in Week 2. The rookie tight end caught all seven of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. With the Eagles being so depleted at the skill positions, it’s a no brainer to throw his way.Corey Clement took the most snaps of any Eagles running back. He had 19 combined touches (16 carries and three receptions) while Wendell Smallwood had 13 combined touches (10 carries and three receptions). These two guys combined for 112 rushing yards, 54 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown. Josh Adams only played eight snaps but he made the most of them by taking six carries for 30 yards. That’s a nice NFL debut for the undrafted rookie. Kamar Aiken outsnapped Jordan Matthews but failed to register a target. I wouldn’t just assume it’ll be Aiken who goes to the bench if/when Alshon Jeffery comes back this week. It could be Jeffery and Aiken on the outside with Agholor in the slot. JMatt could still get some playing time but I don’t think Aiken is just going to the bench, although he probably should. It’ll be much better when the Eagles offense is at a point when they don’t have to play Joshua Perkins for 38% of the snaps.It’s really disappointing to see that Shelton Gibson can only get one measly snap while the Eagles are missing three of their top four wide receivers. Not to mention that Philadelphia’s offense needs a field-stretcher and Gibson has the speed to do that. We saw as much in the preseason. For whatever reason, the coaching staff just doesn’t trust him. DEFENSEMalcolm Jenkins, Jordan Hicks, and Ronald Darby played the entire game. Hicks continues to be the Eagles’ dime linebacker. He finished the day with a team-high eight tackles and two passes defensed. Jalen Mills would’ve played the entire game if he didn’t have to come out for a little bit to get checked up on after breaking up a pass. Rasul Douglas briefly filled in for him.Last year, the Eagles made an effort to conserve Fletcher Cox by limiting his playing time to some extent. Hasn’t been the case this year with the Eagles being thinner at defensive tackle.Corey Graham had to play a lot more than usual with Rodney McLeod leaving the game early due to a knee injury. McLeod indicated he’s going to be OK but we’ll see. Nigel Bradham had to leave the game at one point because he had the wind knocked out of him after colliding with Jenkins. Brandon Graham received the fifth most snaps of any defensive lineman. He played the most snaps of any Eagles defensive end in 2017. A reminder that the Eagles’ weakside linebacker spot isn’t incredibly important: Kamu Grugier-Hill played nine defensive snaps on Sunday. The Eagles don’t really trust undrafted rookie free agent Bruce Hector to play much. The defensive tackle options behind Cox just aren’t very inspiring, which is why we see Michael Bennett get a lot of interior work. SPECIAL TEAMSAvonte Maddox is tied with Grugier-Hill for the Eagles’ lead in special teams tackle with two. D.J. Alexander got flagged for running into the Colts’ punter. Thankfully it didn’t end up costing the Eagles a third down stop.Nathan Gerry didn’t see a single defensive snap for the first time this season.DID NOT PLAYInactive: Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, Alshon Jeffery, Nate Sudfeld, Chance Warmack, Jordan Mailata, Matt PryorActive but did not play: Nick Foles, Josh Sweat